Human mobility and
socio-ecological resilience:

environmental change and livelihood diversification strategies
in the Nepali Tarai

GEP postgraduate conference
9 November 2015

Outline

1. Introduction and context
2. Methodology and methods
3. Theoretical conceptualizations
4. Findings and discussion
5. Implications

1. Context of the research

• explore additional challenges brought about by environmental changes
• quantify perception of environmental change
• explore dynamic ways in which households adapt by diversifying their livelihoods
• Contribution
• policy measures for planned adaptation measures to increase socio-ecological resilience

2. Methodology and methods

• Research framework utilizing both quantitative and qualitative tools
• Unit of analysis
• Sample selection and data analysis

Unit of analysis

• Questionnaire survey – demographic details; socioeconomic details; livelihood strategies; motivation for livelihood strategies - Household
• Questionnaire survey – perception of changes in climatic variables and environmental resource indicators - Individual

Sample selection

3. Theoretical conceptualizations

• "Vulnerability, adaptation and resilience in a socio-ecological system
  • Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities" (IPCC, 2007).
• The process of reflexive modernization
  • Beck’s (1992) theory on reflexive modernization illustrates how individuals increasingly become aware of the risks associated with modernization, question expert opinions, respond to risks, and join movements to push forward new priorities and policies

4. Findings and discussions

• Characterstics of sampled households
• Perceptions and impacts of environmental change
• Historical experience with migration
• In-situ adaptation in agriculture
• Ex-situ adaptation

Household characteristics

Rainfall characterstics

Inter-annual variability in mean monthly rainfall in Tarahara Station (1971 - 2012 aggregate)

Dry spells

Dry spell days, monsoon onset day and successful plantation day for Damak station for years 2000 to 2004
53% respondents had experienced drought in the last 5-7 years

Cropping calendar

Cropping calendar for major crops in Tarai showing daily rainfall (blue) and daily minimum temperature (magenta)

Flash floods

• Sediment deposit on the field was the most reported problem from floods
• No mechanism for compensation when land is lost
• Only 18 respondents had received any form of relief
• No insurance mechanism

Perception of impact from changes in climatic variables

Perception of changes in eleven climatic variables

Perception of trends in agricultural output

The respones were not significantly related with respondents' prior experience with flood or, with respondents' family having a migrant member or not

Climate impact and agricultural yield

"Rainfall has become untimely. It does not rain during plantation time"
(12 respondents in questionnaire survey)

"The canals dried because of drought. We do not have private irrigation pump so we rely on rainfall."
(female-57 from Damak, 17 Dec 2013)

"We get more output now but it's also costly due to [chemical] fertilizers."
(4 respondents from questionnaire survey)

Arrival of hill-migrants since the 1960s

• Tarai has been a destination of in-migrants moving from the hills since the 1960s (Gurung, 1989; Kansakar, 1985)

"There was no market, the whole area was a forest. The trees around here were cut shortly after I arrived here. Like many families here, my parents migrated from Bahjang district."
Male 78 years, a pensioner from Dhangadhi remembering the first year he arrived at Dhangadhi aged 16

Historical migration patterns

Historic internal migration pattern based on prior residence in Dhangadhi (left) and Damak (right)

Agricultural infrastructure

• Irrigation system: only small percentage with access to canals, and the structure has not been properly maintained
• Electricity: supply is not constant, up to 18 hours per day load shedding
• Cost barrier: cost of pump, cost of bore hole, cost of fuel, cost of pipe and cost of labour
• Only 3 respondents out of 294 had started harvesting a new crop in the last 5 years

Negiotating livelihoods through coping and adaptation

"Nothing can be done."
(6 respondents in questionnaire survey)

"When the field was dry, land owner accused me of not working hard enough. Pump set is not available when needed."
(female-25 from Dhangadhi, 3 Feb 2014)

"Rainfall is the best [for paddy]. Pumped water do not contain nutrients."
(female-33 from Dhangadhi, 3 Feb 2014)

In-situ adaptation examples

• Farming of high value crops along the river banks when it is dry
• Requires constant safeguard
• No legal entitlement
• Land prone to flooding

In-situ adaptation examples

• Procuring fodder and firewood
• Forests in the Tarai are highly protected now compared to in the past when it used to be a common pool resource
• Not all families can afford the payment and have resorted to fetching firewood from across the border
• During flooding period, locals collect trees and branches brought by the flood.

In-situ adaptation examples

• Hiring paid labour for agriculture
• Labour from outside of the family needed
• Upfront investment for planting, transplanting and harvesting labour

Ex-situ adaptation - narratives from migrants' households

• Economic reasons - inadequate income from local jobs
• Adhiya (sharing half) system of land tenure by which the poor or the landless use farmlands and pay half of the produce in return
• Farm income does not enable households to accure assets, remittance on the other hand, if successful yields much higher earnings

Choice of destinations of migrants from surveyed households

Formal education of migrants

Migrants to new international destinations have higher median education

Remittances by destination

Remittances from new international destinations are significantly more than from traditional destinations. National GPD per capita for 2013 was USD 694 (World Bank, 2014)

Use of remittances

For most families, remittance is an essential income source for household activities

5. Implications and summary of findings

• This study combines the physical evidence on environmental changes with the perception of such changes - this could be a framework for understanding and planning for adaptation
• This research establishes migration as a vital form of adaptation for Tarai farmers which should be mainstreamed into state policies.
• By tapping on the trans-local network, the resilience of migrants' household and the community is expected to be strengthened

Findings summary

• no significant decline in agricultural activity by households with a migrant as the remaining members continute the practice
• labour migration opportunities remain an important factor in household decision making; low rainfall and failure of irrigation systems prompted some farmers to leave land fallow
• migrants going to India and the Middle East have significantly lower formal education compared to internal migrants and migrants going to new destinations in SE Asia. Similar findings by Findlay (2011), and Massey et al. (1993)

Findings summary

• The popularity of international destinations disagrees with the theories that most of the environmental change initiated movements will be within national/regional boundaries (Findlay, 2011) perhaps because to the established international networks and any pressure due to environmental change simply reinforces these.
• Since the use of remittances for basic household activities and the fact that remittance income is disproportionately larger than income made at home, the trend in foreign employment is expected to continue